Heating Bills This Winter in Toronto: What El Niño and Enbridge Rates Mean

Less than the headlines suggest. Environment and Climate Change Canada says El Niño often brings milder weather to western and central Canada, while eastern Canada usually experiences lesser effects. NOAA's Great Lakes summary says El Niño brings “increased chances of above-normal temperatures” and dry conditions, and adds: “Cold weather will still occur, but cold air outbreaks tend to be less frequent.” It also says each event is unique and may not follow the pattern. Read that as a lean, not a promise (NOAA Great Lakes El Niño summary).

NOAA's December to February outlook, issued September 17, shows the same signal on the US side of the lakes: better odds of above-normal temperatures and modest signals for below-normal precipitation. That is a regional hint, not an Ontario forecast. The same NOAA summary lists ice storms and blizzards among the things El Niño is not known to affect, so a warmer tilt does not remove the risk of freezing rain or a heavy snowfall.

Heating demand is measured in heating degree days: how many degrees each day's average temperature falls below 18°C, added up over the season. Environment Canada's 1991 to 2020 normals for Toronto Pearson show 3,751 heating degree days a year, with January alone at 711. January averages -5.0°C at Pearson, and the airport sees about 34 days a year with a low below -10°C. Downtown runs warmer, at -3.5°C in January, so say which station you mean (Environment Canada normals).

More degree days means the furnace runs longer and burns more gas. A milder winter trims that, but a Toronto January is a heating month in almost any year.

• Service the furnace. Enbridge recommends an inspection by a licensed contractor at least once a year, before the heating season starts. See what a tune-up covers and costs, or our maintenance plans.
• Check the age and efficiency. An older NRCan guide estimates that replacing a 20-year-old furnace at 78% efficiency with a 95% unit cuts annual energy cost by about 18% (NRCan, Heating with Gas). Savings depend on your house. Our old furnace guide covers how to decide.
• Compare heating options if you are replacing anyway. Ontario electricity prices reset each November 1 (OEB) and the new ones are not out yet. See heat pump vs furnace.
• Get a repair diagnosis early. A furnace that short cycles, rattles or struggles to start is telling you something. If something is off, book a furnace repair visit now, not during the first cold snap.

Sources: NOAA, WMO, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ontario Energy Board, Enbridge Gas, NRCan, all checked September 21, 2026. Not a weather forecast or a bill quote.